Warmists Opinion-Based "Prediction" Deeply Flawed Science
WASHINGTON - The global warmist conspiracy has released its latest scare tactic, a far-fetched "prediction" of dramatic sea level rises.
This time, however, the report seems to have mysteriously disappeared within hours of its appearance, and its message proved so illogical and ridiculous that even the news media - normally swift to spread the conspiracy's output - has dropped it from its "news" stories.
The flawed study has been published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The "prediction" by the so-called scientists is that global sea levels could rise far more than predicted, due to "accelerating melting in Greenland and Antarctica". The report builds on the conspiracy's previous claim that the world's seas would rise by a maximum of just under a metre by 2100. This new study, based on so-called expert opinions, projects that the real level may be around double that figure. This, they say, could lead to the displacement of hundreds of millions of people, an obvious attempt to push people and nations into some soft of climate change action.
The first obvious problem with the report is that it totally ignores the current ice conditions in Greenland and Antarctica, which are not only not accelerating but are actually experiencing growth in ice levels in the past few years.
The second obvious problem with the report is that it is not based on scientific observations at all, or or even on the flawed computer projections that the conspiracy commonly uses to produce its "predictions". As noted above, the report is based on so-called expert opinions, hardly the proper basis for anything resembling a prediction.
The question of sea-level rise was one of the most controversial issues raised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), when it published its fifth assessment report in 2013. At that time, it said the continued warming of the planet, without major reductions in emissions, would see global waters rising by between 52cm and 98cm by 2100.
Some of the conspiracy's leading "researchers" in the field carried out what they termed a "structured expert judgement study", where the scientists make predictions based on their knowledge and understanding of what is happening in Greenland, West and East Antarctica. According to those seriously flawed guesses, if emissions continue on the current trajectory then the world's seas would be very likely to rise by between 62cm and 238cm by 2100. This would be in a world that they predict would warm by around 5C, a prediction that runs counter to what is actually happening in the world.
The report's lead author Prof Jonathan Bamber from the University of Bristol, declared" "For 2100, the ice sheet contribution is very likely in the range of 7-178cm but once you add in glaciers and ice caps outside the ice sheets and thermal expansion of the seas, you tip well over two metres".
According to the authors' scare tactic approach, this scenario would have huge implications for the planet. They "calculate" that the world would lose an area of land equal to 1.79 million square kilometres - equivalent to the size of Libya. Much of the land losses in their projection would be in important food growing areas such as the delta of the Nile. Large swathes of Bangladesh would be very difficult for people to continue to live in. Major global cities, including London, New York and Shanghai would be under threat.
Couched in the fine print of the report is the acknowledgment that they see only a five percent likelihood of this actually happening, but they present the "prediction" almost as if it were an accomplished thing.
The authors also reveal their real purpose in releasing the document: an attempt to coerce the gullible into going along with their climate change agenda. They emphasise that there is still time to avoid these type of scenarios, if major cuts in emissions take place over the coming decades.
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